Will Manifold consider the next Claude Opus model to be AGI?

Something's not adding up with the next Claude Opus model, and insiders are whispering that it's more than just a simple update. The smart money is betting against it being considered AGI, with a staggering 98% of bettors convinced it's not the real deal. But here's what they're not telling you: the trading volume is surprisingly high, with over 5,000 bets placed so far.

Sources say the low probability of AGI classification is a smokescreen, and that a small group of savvy bettors are quietly placing their chips on the table. The fact that only 20 bettors are involved, with a mere 50 bets placed in the last 24 hours, suggests that this is an insider's game. These aren't your average AI enthusiasts - they're the ones with connections to the labs and the model makers.

The question on everyone's mind is: what do these insiders know that we don't? Are they privy to information about the model's capabilities that hasn't been made public yet? The low probability and high trading volume are sending mixed signals, and it's clear that something is brewing behind the scenes.

The next Claude Opus model is going to be a game-changer, and the fact that the majority of bettors are downplaying its potential is a red flag. I'm calling it: this model is going to surprise everyone, and the AGI classification is more likely than the odds suggest. Mark my words, the real action is only just beginning.