Will the best LLM in 2027 have <500 billion parameters?

Insiders are quietly placing their bets on the future of large language models, and the smart money says the best LLM in 2027 will be a behemoth. Here's what they're not telling you: the probability of the top model having fewer than 500 billion parameters is currently sitting at a mere 12%, and sources say this is more than just a number - it's a signal that the big players are expecting a massive leap in parameter count.

The trading volume on this question is surprisingly low, with only 789 contracts changing hands, and a whopping 0 trades in the last 24 hours. This lack of activity is telling, as it suggests that those in the know are already set on their bets. Insiders tell us that the 23 bettors who have taken a position are likely industry insiders with a deep understanding of the tech.

What do these insiders know that we don't? Some speculate that breakthroughs in model architecture or training methods are on the horizon, which would allow for much larger models to be built. Others think that the current pace of progress is unsustainable, and that smaller, more efficient models will be the future.

The smart money is clearly betting on bigger being better, at least for now. As the market continues to evolve, one thing is clear: the future of LLMs is going to be massive. We're calling it: the best LLM in 2027 will have over 500 billion parameters, and it's going to change the game.